Between democratic aspirations and authoritarian resilience: A political economy analysis of elections and regime dynamics in Africa, 1991-2024

Résumé

This paper offers a political economy analysis of democracy and electoral politics in Africa from the post-Cold War democratisation wave of 1991 to 2024. It contends that the continent's political trajectory is best understood not as a linear transition toward liberal democracy but as a persistent tension between democratic aspirations and authoritarian resilience. Over three decades, democratisation waves have given way to stagnation and reversal, producing uneven political landscapes.  Contextual within the framework of political economy, the paper interrogates the resurgence of democratic backsliding, manifested in military coups, constitutional manipulation, and the erosion of term limits, situating these within a broader framework of reconfigured power and popular disillusionment. Coups in West and Central Africa, alongside third-term bids by long-serving presidents, exemplify this retreat from earlier democratic gains. Drawing on comparative case study design, the analysis demonstrates that Africa's political landscape has evolved into a spectrum of hybrid regimes, marked by the coexistence of electoral competition and autocratic practices ranging from flawed democracies to competitive authoritarian systems where elections legitimise incumbents. Also, the analysis shows that resource management, elite competition, and the weakness of programmatic political parties’ shape developmental outcomes across regime types. Specifically, natural resource wealth often fuels patronage, elite fragmentation can either enable democratic openings or trigger conflict, and non-programmatic parties hinder coherent policy formulation. The paper concludes that the strength of democratic institutions, especially accountability mechanisms and genuine electoral competitiveness, remains a more decisive determinant of Africa's developmental trajectory than natural resource endowments or the mere occurrence of elections. It recommends that fostering institutional quality, rather than routine elections, should be the priority for advancing democracy and development in Africa.