The Zambia crisis management and resilience model (Z-CMRM): Developing and validating a context-specific framework for sustainable tourism resilience

Abstract

The absence of context-specific, empirically grounded crisis management models for tourism in sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as a primary constraint on sectoral resilience in the region. Existing frameworks, predominantly derived from developed-economy tourism contexts, fail to account for the distinctive vulnerabilities, institutional realities, and resource constraints that characterise tourism crisis management in developing countries. This study presents the development, empirical validation, and implementation design of the Zambia Crisis Management and Resilience Model (Z-CMRM), a holistic, five-component framework for sustainable tourism resilience grounded in mixed-methods evidence from 137 stakeholders selected through stratified purposive sampling across government institutions, private sector operators, community-based organisations, and tourists in Zambia's major tourism regions. The Z-CMRM comprises five interdependent components: (1) integrated information and early warning systems; (2) preparedness and institutional capacity building; (3) crisis response and coordination protocols; (4) recovery and business continuity frameworks; and (5) mitigation, sustainability, and long-term resilience. The model is structured across three implementation phases — institutional foundation (years 1–2), capacity building (years 2–4), and systems integration (years 4–7) — designed to progressively close the 1.60-point awareness–preparedness gap documented in the empirical analysis. Empirical validation draws on four-construct quantitative analysis (crisis awareness M = 4.58; resilience building M = 3.97; preparedness capacity M = 2.98; policy governance M = 2.88), qualitative thematic analysis identifying fragmentation, resource constraints, and policy implementation failures as primary structural challenges, and tourist demand-side analysis confirming strong preference alignment with the model's sustainability pillars. The Z-CMRM represents both a theoretical contribution to tourism crisis management literature and a policy-relevant implementation roadmap for Zambia's tourism sector governance. This study recommended that the Ministry of Tourism and Arts should formally adopt the Z-CMRM as Zambia's National Tourism Crisis Management Framework through a ministerial directive or Cabinet memorandum, providing the political mandate necessary for cross-institutional coordination.